Global PC market braces for decline

The global PC market will suffer a decline in unit shipments in 2009 for the first time since the dot com bust of 2001, according to market watcher iSuppli.

Global shipments are anticipated to nose dive to 287.3 million units in 2009, down four per cent from 299.2 million in 2008.

iSuppli had previously forecast 0.7 per cent growth in PC shipments for the year.

The analyst attributed the expected decline to weak desktop sales. Unit shipments of desktop PCs are set to total 124.4 million in 2009, down from 151.9 million recorded for the previous year.

iSuppli includes entry-level servers in its definition of PCs, which are also set to suffer a decline – shipments are set to fall to 6.9 million units, down 9.5 per cent from 7.7 million in 2008.

Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst for compute platforms for iSuppli, said: “An annual decline in unit shipments is highly unusual in the PC market.

“Even in weak years, PC unit shipments typically rise by single-digit percentages. The last decline, in 2001, was a 5.1 decrease in unit shipments due to the extraordinary impact of the dot com bust, which caused inflated IT spending levels from the previous years to collapse.”

In contrast, notebook PC shipments are set to rise by 11.7 per cent this year, hitting 156 million units, up from 139.6 million in the previous year.

Wilkins said: “Mobility is winning out in the PC market. Businesses and consumers continue to embrace notebook PCs because of the benefits of mobility and the near-equal performance and feature set. This is cutting into desktop PC shipments.

“Although our expectation is for shipments to rise vigorously in the third quarter on a sequential basis, conditions remain weak compared to 2008.”

Shipments in Q309 will be down 6.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2008, according to the market watcher, but the fourth quarter will see shipments rise by 3.6 per cent compared to a year earlier.