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31 Aug 2010
Global PC sales are expected to rise just 19.2 per cent in 2010 year on year, according to a new preliminary forecast by Gartner.
That would mean a total of 367.8 million units sold, up from the 308.3 million that were sold in 2009.
Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, said the PC market did revive in the first half of this year, but the real test is to come.
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“We have reduced our forecast for second-half 2010 PC growth to 15.3 per cent, approximately two per cent below our previous forecast, in light of the uncertain economic outlook for the US and Western Europe,” confirmed Atwal.
“There is no doubt that consumer, if not business PC demand has slowed relative to expectations in mature markets. Recent dramatic shifts in the PC supply chain were in no small part a reaction to fears of a sharp slowdown in mature-market demand.”
Suppliers were also avoiding risk, which was as important a factor as any real reduction in demand, added Atwal.
However, suppliers' risk aversion is as much a factor in these shifts as any actual downshift in demand.
“Consumers buoyed the PC market in 2009 as businesses delayed their purchases. The slow pace of economic recovery and austerity measures in Europe have made PC suppliers very cautious in 2010,” he added.
Atwal said that consumer demand, however, is likely to remain strong even if the economic recovery stalls because consumers see PCs as a necessary item rather than a luxury and will therefore continue to buy them – even at the expense of other consumer electronics.
Furthermore, businesses will find it very difficult to delay PC replacements any longer than another couple of quarters, according to Atwal.
“Businesses that delay much longer, risk alienating employees, more service requests and support costs, and ultimately facing higher migration costs when they migrate to Windows 7,” he said.
Meanwhile, the impact of mini-notebooks on the PC market has peaked, according to Gartner research.
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