PC growth forecasts slashed by two-thirds

Global economic meltdown has made researcher iSuppli slash its 2009 forecast for PC unit shipments by nearly two-thirds. But, staggeringly, it said notebook sales will continue to grow rapidly.

iSuppli’s new preliminary forecast says global PC shipments will still rise, albeit by only 4.3 per cent, in 2009. This compares with its previous forecast of 11.9 percent growth. The new revised forecast for 2010 is a 7.1 per cent growth in unit shipments, down from the previous forecast of 9.4 per cent expansion.

“Since the last worldwide PC forecast, the landscape of the global economy has changed dramatically, and irrevocably,” said Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms for iSuppli.

Wilkins said that with banking institutions crumbled and disappeared, or in need of government aid to survive, the availability of credit - and interest rates - has affected large corporations, small businesses and the man on the street.

“The result is less money to spend, and often that money is itself more expensive,” Wilkins said. “So application markets, like PCs, have been impacted.”

The PC market was buoyant for a long time, reporting annual growth rates around the 10 per cent mark for the past five years - with 2008 becoming the sixth year, due to 13 percent growth expected. But the credit collapse has ruined prospects for the PC market in 2009.

“In light of financial issues, the task of refreshing or acquiring new IT equipment has taken a back seat,” Wilkins said.

Suppli believes desktop PC shipments in 2009 will decline around 5 per cent, while notebook PCs will grow about 15 per cent, as this sector will continue to thrive. Very attractive pricing for netbooks will sustain momentum, he predicted. iSuppli believes demand for netbooks will show less of a reduction in 2009 than other notebook platforms, primarily due to their lower average selling prices.