The DRam market will not recover dramatically any time soon, market analyst iSuppli has predicted. The good news, however, is that a dramatic downturn in fortunes is not expected just yet, according to iSuppli analyst Rosemary Farrell.

Suppliers need a dramatic recovery, said Farrell, but it is not coming. The industry will still be challenged this year and, though it does not feel like it, we are living through the most compelling period of the PC market’s history.

In an echo of the ancient Chinese curse, DRam makers are living in interesting times, said Farrell.
“The second quarter will determine the 2008 DRam market growth outlook,” she said. “A reasonable market condition should be viewed as a must to trigger the second-half market turnaround,” she warned.

Farrell counselled channel players not to be too pessimistic about the recent market turmoil.
“ISuppli will wait and see how the second-quarter market plays out and what the market condition will be moving forward. A worse-than-anticipated market condition can result in another disastrous year,” she said.

Farrell had some stern warnings for Samsung, however, which has been accused of aggressively attempting to muscle competitors out of the market.

“There will be no gain without pain. But if suppliers continue to hold on to precious market share in the hope that competitors withdraw from the market, the market recovery will certainly be delayed.”

With enormous capital investment, Samsung’s DRam growth is expected to hit 87 per cent this year. “Samsung’s rationalisation of its Capex plans should be the key to market recovery,” predicted Farrell.

However, Dave Flack, sales director at memory distributor Catalus, was unimpressed with the advice.

“What are they telling us? The market will not recover any time soon, but there will be no dramatic downturn? Business as usual, then. That is easy for them to say,” said Flack. “Meanwhile there is continued tough times for the channel.”