Mobile carriers in China will be earning revenues of $123bn by 2012, telecoms analysts predict.

Forecasts from research consultancy Ovum suggest that China will see mobile revenue growth of 15 to 17 per cent per year over the next five years. 

China is already the world's biggest mobile phone market by volume with almost half a billion subscribers from a population of 1.3 billion.

The world's most populous nation will also see continuing revenue growth in fixed-line markets, despite a decline in infrastructure investment.

"Fixed network growth in China will be driven by continued economic development. But fixed capital expenditure will decline as operators rein in capital intensity which has been running at 28 to 31 per cent of revenues," Ovum researchers wrote in a recent report.

"Mobile service revenues will grow at double-digit rates, but mobile capital expenditure will grow more slowly due to declining capital intensity."

Elsewhere in Asia mobile growth will generally be slower, and fixed-line expenditure revenues will suffer a decline on average, the research firm expects.

"Japan and Australia have the largest share of the Asia Pacific fixed telecom services market, and competitive pressures combined with mobile substitution are hobbling service revenue growth in those countries," said John Lively, vice president of forecasting at Ovum RHK.

"In turn, the continued erosion of fixed voice revenues means that companies cannot afford to grow capital spending.

"Mobile revenue and capital expenditure, on the other hand, will continue to grow. The main drivers will be subscriber growth and the adoption of 3G services, which will offset price declines in basic mobile voice."