Hands up, who owns a handheld?

Seven or eight years ago, portables accounted for only a fifth of PC sales. The portables of that period were inferior to their desktop cousins in processing power, storage, screen quality, ergonomics and expansion, and were 30 per cent more expensive to boot. And the batteries went flat in less than three hours.

According to analysts, these drawbacks were supposed to disappear within two or three years. (By the way, have you noticed that PC revolutions are always said to be two or three years away?) So it has come to pass that almost every portable problem has been resolved. Intel has invented low power and low-heat chips. Sludgy monoscreens have been replaced by sharp colour.

NiCad batteries have been superseded by more efficient lithium ion. Hard disks have been miniaturised, multimedia features included and nifty little pointy-sticks developed. Even PC Cards now work out of the box and operating systems have special features for mobiles.

And today? Notebooks are still a processor generation behind desktops.

Most barely provide a 13in screen, while desktop users are moving up to 15in and 17in. They still have smaller disks, more cramped keyboards and tinny loudspeakers. They are still less reliable and less secure and the batteries still last only two or three hours. Even the weight of a full-function notebook PC has hardly changed since the genre was introduced.

And the price premium? Well, funny you should ask, but it is about 30 per cent - just like 1990.

So it is no surprise that notebooks still account for only a fifth of PCs sold. It seems significant that despite cornering more than half the notebook market, Toshiba now does a nice little line in desktops too - surely a tacit admission that notebooks are never likely to predominate.

It is difficult to see how notebooks can be improved, except to limp along in the shadow of their cheaper, more user-friendly tin and glass rivals. Weight and dimensions are dictated by the requirements of screen, keyboard and internal components. Any improvements in performance and storage will be cancelled by greedier software, and improvements in battery technology will be cancelled by the improvements in performance.

And while notebook makers are struggling across the watershed of sub-#1,000, desktop makers are diving below #500. The long-term future of portable computing looks to belong to the handheld device. You can already access fax, email and the Web, carry your contacts and diary, give presentations and plug into a desktop display. The batteries last all day and the kit costs under #1,000.

With improvements in voice recognition and miniaturised storage, and automatic wireless replication with office networks, handheld PCs could soon replace a desktop machine as effectively as a notebook can.When?

Oh, in two or three years, I should say.

Paul Bray is a freelance IT journalist.