Research and analysis

Reseller opinions on vertical markets, mobile devices and economic factors

Ups and downs of vertical markets

Rather unusually, reseller perceptions are in line with vendor hype for IT services and telecoms, according to the latest Context research. They are both growth areas for about two-thirds of respondents in these verticals. Services and telecoms were also the only sectors where less than 30 per cent of companies questioned thought the market to be static.

However, IT services, automotive and retail stand out with larger year-on-year declines than other verticals. That said, the proportion of resellers that think specific verticals are in decline is consistently in the minority. Is this a case of eternal optimism by the rest, or something more concrete?

Optimism for network and mobile sectors

Hopes of sales growth have deflated a little between October and November. According to Context, optimism in specific horizontals - for example, networking and mobile technologies - possibly reflects a more targeted approach by resellers. Context says its estimates for hardware sales growth were a little low, when compared with these figures.

Negative outlook on economic front

According to Context, resellers believe demand for the next three months will be pretty similar to last year. However, resellers are slightly more concerned with economic factors, they are not overly impressed with new products, and they are leaning on vendors marketing activities more as a crutch to their sales.

That said, 80 per cent of interviewees thought new technology will have a positive effect on demand between November and January.

RIM takes edge off Nokia market share

Nokia again holds the most market share, but its growth, despite a very healthy 25 per cent, is less than others': Nokia's market share slipped from 52 per cent in the third quarter in 2003 to 46 per cent the same time this year.

In part, Nokia's fall from grace is attributable to fast-growing Research in Motion (RIM), which, after an incredibly slow start earlier this decade, has suddenly spiralled. Growth during Q3 2004 was a stunning 536 per cent, but even then it gained only eight per cent market share. In fourth place at the moment, RIM has still managed to displace palmOne and Orange's Microsoft Smartphones.

PalmOne may yet stage a renaissance. The vendor's Treo 600 was well received in the US but sold poorly in Europe. Various excuses for this have been bandied around, but a restrictive and ultimately disappointing exclusive deal with Orange, and different buying and usage cultures in Europe are probably contributory factors.

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