The worst is yet to come

The Romans had the right idea when it came to bad news - they simply killed the messenger. Had Bill Clinton done likewise to Kenneth Starr when the special prosecutor first presented him with Monica Lewinsky's testimony, the US president may not have suffered such a devastating blow, so to speak.

Bill Gates, by contrast, is more likely to reward the bearer of bad tidings with a cigar. The Microsoft CEO's rationale is that while good news is all very pleasant, he prefers bad news - if only because it is actionable.

Discover someone is about to slap a writ on you or that development of software is running late and there's always a chance you can do something.

Forewarned is forearmed, he reasons.

Quite why Microsoft's operating systems always seem to be late to market is another matter. It could be that given Gates' well-chronicled proclivity for screaming tantrums, no one at the Seattle factory is convinced he truly enjoys hearing the worst.

But what about the dealer community? How does it know when things are about to take a downturn?

If boxes aren't shifting, it's obvious that things aren't good. The trick is to anticipate this so you don't end up overstocked, overstaffed and overdrawn.

It's here that unofficial pointers are indispensable. When recession bites, for example, the computer industry is always the first to get it in the neck - witness how the likes of IBM laid off thousands of workers in the late 80s.

The billion dollar question, literally, is - are we poised for another huge dip? Seek guidance from official sources and the answer is no. But look at the unofficial indices and the answer is a resounding yes. For instance, there's the Fat Chancellor Index as first witnessed in the days of Nigel Lawson. The tubbier he became in the 80s, the worse the economy got. Once he dieted, things perked up. Meanwhile, Gordon Brown has definitely put on the pounds and recent photos of him dining at restaurants suggest he is more concerned with velocity of food than quality.

Another pointer is the Tipped Cabbie Index. One London driver recently revealed that not only were tips getting lighter, but there were fewer wealthy tourists, with a steep decline in those from the Far East and US, the world's most prodigious IT regions.

Imports of champagne are plummeting, while according to the Economist's 'R' index, linking the number of times newspapers print the word 'recession' and an actual downturn, there was an alarming 50 per cent increase in the count during this year's second quarter.

Finally, there's the Hemline Index. When women's skirts get shorter, the better the economy fares, as evidenced in the swinging 60s and the heady days of Mary Quant's miniskirts. Sadly, hemlines are today plunging.

I prefer the last index if only to tell women it's their national duty to show some leg. But on second thoughts, perhaps that's where Clinton went wrong.