No use crying over spilt milk

Why is the DoJ trying so hard to prove Microsoft cheated by tweaking Windows 95 and 98 to make it difficult for other companies to run their applications?

And what if the DoJ does prove that Microsoft made life harder for rival applications software vendors? What can it do? Get everyone to dispose of Windows and use something else? Of course not. The chances are it would only order Microsoft to pay a lot of cash to a lot of firms.

Where would that leave us? What if Microsoft was to say: 'Well guys, OK, we'll pay our dues. But it means that we have to cut our R&D budget so, sorry, there'll be no NT5 until the third quarter in the year 2000 and no Windows 9x or Office upgrades until 2002. Oh yes, and there'll be cutbacks on bug-fixing and on general support for users and for the channel.'

It would expose the incredible dependency the industry and the user community now has on Microsoft. Let's not kid ourselves here - if Microsoft is harmed, the industry is harmed. And attacking the company over spilt milk is pointless.

But we won't stop doing it. Just a few days ago, we had a report about the Caldera case. This is a company backed by former Novell chief executive Ray Noorda that's trying to prove Microsoft attempted to destroy its competition in the software market. But what do people expect Microsoft to do - be nice to the competition? Help it perhaps? Promote the advantages of rivals' software and the deficiencies of its own?

The report claimed that a bunch of Microsoft engineers discussed the possibility of planting a bug in DR-DOS while they were in the pub one night. Well, what sort of ideas do you come up with after a few lagers?

And if Microsoft did cheat, what are we going to do now? Dump Windows and go back to DR-DOS, circa 1992? I don't think so.

If anyone is going to undo Microsoft, it's probably Microsoft itself.

There was a report last month about a recent Gartner Group recommendation regarding NT5, which said it's probably not wise to adopt NT5 for a couple of years yet.

Microsoft is in a tight corner here. It can't rush NT5 out because so much will depend on it. Users will be looking to put vital systems on it, so it must work. Microsoft can't afford to release a system that crashes - it will destroy user confidence and trigger a mass exodus back to Unix and NetWare.

But it can't afford to wait either. NetWare 5 is on the market this month and with the year 2000 fast approaching, many companies will look to adopting it until perhaps 2001 at least. That will give them time to see how NT5 performs, but it will also give Novell time to re-establish its credentials and dig its teeth - and Java's - into the user base.

Unix could do the same. It's been interesting to hear Compaq making sweet noises about SCO and its own 'Digital' Unix. If Unix is used to carrying applications while the market gets over the year 2000, the NT5 party might be delayed - indefinitely.

Simon Meredith is a freelance IT journalist.