Celebrating renew year

The next big corporate refreshment cycle is expected to kick in around 2003, but not everyone is that optimistic. Paul Briggs looks at the two schools of thought.

Two thousand and three, or not two thousand and three? That is the question currently occupying the thoughts of a large number of vendors, distributors and resellers.

I am, of course, talking about the much anticipated IT renewal cycle.

Many organisations spent serious cash a few years back on Y2K preparation or dotcom ventures, and analysts at the time predicted that the next big corporate refreshment cycle would probably kick in around 2003.

There are currently two schools of thought on the chances of this happening. On the positive side, some in the channel maintain that the evidence of recovery can be seen already and point to the finance sector, where the faintest whispers of renewal can be heard.

The less optimistic believe that investor confidence is at its lowest level for a long time, and that end users don't want to be seen spending money on IT systems, especially if they have just been through a period of consolidation and job cutting.

The air still buzzes with the fear of Y2K and the promise of dotcoms, and those areas proved costly white elephants for a lot of organisations.

Where once they bought into the 'speeds and feeds' pitch of IT vendors, end users now want vendors to prove their claims before they commit their cash.

To this end, IT firms have to demonstrate that their systems offer measurable benefits. The good news is that vendors are starting to get to grips with this. Both customers and manufacturers realise that patching up networks and making do with older systems will not do for much longer.

New technology is emerging that will help to drive businesses forward and, if users think it fits their requirements, they will buy it.

Evidence suggests that things are starting to pick up, but whether the green shoots will turn into next year's leaves is another question altogether.