EUROPEAN VIEW
Linux seems to be the bright light of IT-land at the moment. Not only have Netscape, Oracle, Computer Associates and Informix announced that they would port some of their software to run the free Linux source code, but Red Hat, a Linux developer, has got the backing of Netscape and Intel. Corel already has a WordPerfect version for Linux and will be shipping its network computers with the Linux operating system.
Linux is a Unix variant of an operating system whose source code was released freely in 1991. The idea was that the software's users could refine the code and adjust it to their needs. In 1991, it only spread to internet diehards who skimmed the bulletin board systems to retrieve the code. But today, millions of people (and not only the nerds) can download Linux and write their own software additions. The number of users of one or other variant of Linux is thought to be between six and 10 million.
Some people believe Linux will eventually rival Microsoft's operating systems - especially Microsoft NT at the low end of the internet server and applications server market.
How should the resellers react to this? Will Linux indeed become a serious opponent for Microsoft? Or is Linux the latest subject of IT hype?
I believe it's hype - just like Merced, Windows CE, speech technology, Windows NT 5, the NC and Java are all hype-defined as brilliant marketing campaigns, planned or coincidental, that generating no substantial new revenue stream.
Why do I think that Linux is just hype ? I have three reasons. First, Linux is such an open system that is difficult to support. The somewhat sudden establishment of a Linux Standards Association (LSA) says a great deal. Supporters of the LSA claim that every operating system that wants to appear credible - a minimum requirement if it is to be accepted by businesses - needs a set of rules. Opponents counter by saying that the LSA wants to put Linux in shackles.
In other words, Linux users don't know where they want to go. So what should resellers tell their clients? Must a reseller who has to give the operating system away for free also support it in all its variants?
After training with Microsoft, IBM, Cisco and Novell, resellers are not going to want to take a course in Linux. Besides, where would they find specialists for Linux if they can't find them for Microsoft?
The second reason is that Oracle and Netscape have once again jumped on the bandwagon. It is not so long ago that Oracle and Netscape opened hostilities by announcing the arrival of the NC and the death of the PC.
If I am not mistaken, they both made fools of themselves and Microsoft and Intel still haven't stopped laughing.
The motives of Oracle and Netscape in the Linux affair are crystal clear - to try to hit at Microsoft. My advice to both companies would be to try to beat Microsoft with better products instead of getting into bizarre projects.
Ironically, Microsoft will be able to take advantage of the Linux hype.
According to the software giant, it proves how quickly everything can change and shows that nobody can capture a quasi monopoly position, much less keep hold of one.
Microsoft will be happy to tell that to the court which is investigating its alleged monopoly practices. Meanwhile, let us not pretend that Oracle, Netscape and Corel are supporting Linux because it is a useful alternative for the client or because it promises to be good for resellers' business.
The third reason I believe it's all hype is because the amount of publicity in relation to concrete products or concrete sales results is out of all proportion. The IT press is equally mistaken about this.
Not long ago I received a press clipping from a vendor who proudly announced that he had made an agreement to deliver NCs to one of the biggest automakers in the world. 'Fine,' I thought, ' the NC will take off.' Then there was a press conference and I learned that only 20 NCs were to be delivered.
Now, I could dedicate an entire article to this or I could simply remain silent - which is what I did. But the press does not remain silent about Linux. Even the renowned IT watcher David Coursey has written at length about it. But the real story behind all this media attention is that the 10 or so IT companies that give their support to an outsider simply can't compete with the thousands of companies that support Microsoft products.
Speaking about Linux' long planned world domination during a recent debate evening in Santa Clara, Linus Torvalds, the creator of Linux, said : 'It's becoming less and less of a joke.'
But for the time being, that's exactly what it is, and nothing more.
So let's all get back to thinking about the real products and services - the ones that generate revenue.
Jan Pote is editor of PC Dealer, Belgium.