Future tense

Just like a number of leading IT industry watchers, Computer Reseller News is wary of making any predictions for the coming year.

Predictions about the IT industry over the past few months have often been as insightful as a tabloid astrology column.

If Mystic Meg worked for vnunet.com's sister title Computer Reseller News she might write: "A man called Bill in the Seattle area could find fortune this year. And Virgos will experience bumper margins in the coming months."

Even the most respected industry figures and watchers who know IT inside out have been extra careful not to make far-reaching predictions recently.

This is probably because some high-profile figures have been publicly embarrassed after making reckless forecasts that failed to materialise.

Analysts, too, have been uncharacteristically conservative, with some firms publishing two reports, showing the best and worst scenarios.

Once regarded as visionaries who could predict the course of the IT industry with unnerving accuracy, chief executives are understandably less vocal these days about such matters unless they are 100 per cent certain.

While their reluctance to predict revenues and performance is understandable given US Securities and Exchange Commission regulations, it probably isn't helping investor confidence in IT companies.

Although some brave souls have lifted their heads above the parapet, probably with fingers crossed, to say that 2003 could be the year of recovery, the increasing likelihood of war and the fear that oil and shipping prices will rise, may hamper industry convalescence further.

Nor do the prime minister's less than enthusiastic predictions boost confidence.

Nevertheless, as CRN reported last week, the channel is optimistic that there are some tidy profits to be made this year, especially in the small-business area.

But we probably won't know whether 2003 really is the year of the SME, as predicted by CRN, until the end of the first half.