The whether or not forecast

Robin Bloor joins the ranks of the IT speculators and gives his predictions for the year ahead.

In January, when the frosts come and the snow falls, IT analysts get to reflect on the coming year. Luckily few people take note of their speculations and call them to account for it a year later.

However, IT analysts are not financial analysts. Hardly anyone makes purchasing decisions based on their predictions for the future, even if they follow their advice when it comes to current products.

This year I have decided to join the IT speculators and suggest 10 things that 2003 may have to offer:

1. 2003 will be the year of Linux server domination
Actually, I am probably right about this because 2002 was pretty healthy for Linux anyway, and the statistics (which always underestimate the amount of Linux in use) may suggest that 2002 was also the year of Linux server domination.

Microsoft really has no answer to the lumbering Linux juggernaut in the server space.

2. 2003 will not be the year of Linux on the desktop
Don't get me wrong on this. It probably will happen at some point. In fact, it is getting awfully close. Some corporates are dipping their toes in the water. Sun Microsystems' Star Office is doing well and the richness of the Linux PC environment grows.

However, the Microsoft PC is a standard and standards have momentum. You will have to wait another couple of years for Linux on the desktop.

3. Dell will continue to dominate hardware manufacturing
However, I can foresee a time when this will end: sometime after 2015, I confidently predict.

4. Oracle will continue to do well in the ASP/hosting market
Oracle's success in this area has been remarkable for its rapid growth and the lack of hype. It may even be that chief executive Larry Ellison hasn't noticed yet, but I doubt it.

The problem here is that Oracle is just about the only company doing serious business in the ASP space, so everyone concentrates on the message that the ASP market isn't doing too well.

5. Nokia will enter the PDA market
Nokia has dominated the mobile space but hasn't properly entered this sector. The PDA market has now become active and even Dell has a version, but Nokia is the company that could define the PDA/mobile phone, and there is no reason to think that it won't.

Expect it to come to market with a new and fairly compelling device this year.

6. Apple's 'recovery' will continue
Apple just keeps on making good products and in time this will tell. Of course, the company will never reach the size of Dell or Microsoft, but that's another matter. Apple has come through the worst and it will continue to teach Hewlett Packard the real meaning of the word 'innovate'.

7. IBM will not notice the departure of Lou Gerstner
Lou may be long gone, and has already written a book on the market, but the first year of succession normally brings little change. Usually in the second year the new supremo begins to stamp his authority.

However, Sam Palmisano was, in my opinion, formed from grafts of Lou Gerstner's stem cells, so IBM is unlikely to notice much change under his leadership, which is probably a good thing for its customers.

8. 2003 may be the year of XML
OK, so 'may' is a weasel word, but lots of committees have been doing lots of work trying to enforce XML standards on different business sectors, and last year I started to notice a little bit of adoption taking place.

Actually, there are benefits here, so a little bit of adoption will lead to much more. However, it will happen sector by sector.

9. This year will not be the year of web services
At the moment web services is like sex with aliens: some people say it happens but nobody can furnish any proof. Of course, much depends on what you think web services are and whether you count linking applications within the corporate network (which I don't).

Web services are hampered by security issues and will make their mark a lot later than expected because of this. However, I can confidently predict that evidence of web services will appear before evidence of sex with aliens.

10. Microsoft will announce a technology that improves the usability of PCs
This is a wild one, but I'm getting to the end of the list here and I'm running out of ideas. Every year Microsoft invests billions in product development, and I know that only a fraction of the cash pile goes into PC usability.

But if you keep throwing money at a problem you must one day obscure it from view, surely.

So that's my list of predictions for this year. Write to me next year if it's completely wrong, telling me how you based your corporate strategy on every word I wrote.