2001 reasons to look forward to the future

Following a difficult 2000, the future is bright for PC sales in Europe, according to analyst IDC, which predicts a rise in shipments of around 15 per cent.

Comdex Fall last year was described as a disappointment by no less an authority than Tech Data's chief executive, Steve Raymund. Describing the chill that descended over the world's largest IT trade show, Raymund admitted he was more bearish in his outlook for the IT industry.

His malaise may have had something to do with the countless gadgets on show such as Sony's Irobot, the fact that the keynote speeches were of the usual Ellison-slags-Gates variety and that other highlights included Corel's announcement of an upgrade for Wordperfect.

Speeches notwithstanding, everyone felt the headache that was 2000. At first, the blame was laid at the door of the millennium bug, with the lack of IT spending attributed to budgets having been soaked up, ensuring that the world didn't end before the year began.

Unfortunately, that lasted until the summer and it wasn't until the third quarter that companies started predicting a soft landing for the end of the year.

But whether that would come to pass depended largely on the pre-Christmas rush. For those in retail, Christmas should have been a good one, if only because electronic goods were expected to fly off the shelves to placate the hoards of kids who were not going to get the latest techie toy: the PlayStation 2.

For the rest, it was a question of whether the growth rates were going to pick up. At its recent Cannes Symposium, analyst group Gartner laid out a road map for products such as Windows 95 and 98. It did not make particularly good reading for the channel. Windows 95, for example, will remain a usable product until at least the end of 2003, according to Gartner.

The prospect of millions of PCs in offices up and down the land still running on Windows 95 in three year's time is a scary one. But there remains more than one way to skin a cat; there are still good markets to be exploited, and it doesn't need to be all doom and gloom. The industry is still growing, but it is all about growth rates.

Recent figures from Dataquest show that 34.5 million PCs were shipped in Europe in 2000, a 10 per cent increase on the previous year. The analyst firm predicted that next year the growth rates will return to a healthier 15 per cent, with more than 40 million PCs being shipped to users.

And there's even better news for the business sector, which Dataquest expects will see over 13 per cent growth, compared with only six per cent for 2000. A lot of this predicted growth is based on the three-year product cycle; 1998 was a good year and a lot of those PCs will be reaching their best before time.

So the year should end and begin with good tidings. Last year started off with dotcom madness fresh in the air, and a lot of attention and energy was diverted when it would have been better used building real businesses. Happily, the peak of over-expectation has been passed without too much of a backlash.

Even Raymund is optimistic in the long term, and so he should be. The real start to the millennium - the year 2001 - will see businesses invest in IT as never before.