The Scottish IT industry vote - yes or no?
Scotland goes to the polling booths tomorrow, but which way might the IT channel vote and why?
As you read this, five million Scots are preparing to vote on one of the most important political decisions in their lifetime: should Scotland remain part of the UK, or is it time to go it alone once again?
By Tuesday, 97 per cent of residents had registered to vote in the 18 September 2014 referendum, and fewer commentators than ever are prepared to predict which way the vote will swing. Many will be relieved once it is all over - and many more will look ahead to a potentially brighter future regardless of the final decision.
We asked a range of Scotland-based as well as one or two English channel companies for their views on the issues surrounding potential independence. Several said they were not happy to comment publicly on such a sensitive issue, perhaps understandably. And others agreed to answer our series of questions; we have summarised their thoughts below.
Aye or noo?
Thomas Stirling, founder and chief executive of Glasgow-headquartered cloud services provider Versutus IT, says he will be voting "yes", most likely "from both a personal and a business standpoint", although the arguments for and against are anything but settled, even at this late stage.
"There has been so much debate, from 16 year-olds to people in their 90s and every single person has a different opinion," he says. "And it is going to be an interesting week, because the debates have been getting stronger and stronger."
He notes also that people must remember that a "yes" vote isn't in fact a vote for Alex Salmond or any other personality, whatever one might think of them or of politicians in general. "A lot of people cannot see past that."
That said, Stirling opines that many Scots would prefer to vote at least for devo-more or devo-max (more or maximum devolution) even if they are unsure about voting for full independence.
The biggest worry, he suggests, is that people are having to make a decision without necessarily having found the time to research all the issues properly, and with contrasting and conflicting claims coming from both sides of the debate, that hasn't made things any easier.
"Something as big as this, people should be looking at all the different angles and questions," Stirling says. "But we would have more control [if independent], and more of that control will be held and happening in Scotland."
He points out that if you look at the way the Scottish people have voted over the past 50 or 60 years, only a smaller proportion of Scots have voted for the governments they have actually received - which were then based in Westminster to boot. The general understanding is that a higher proportion of Scots vote Labour, for example, than south of the Solway Firth and the Tweed.
And for Stirling, the opportunities available in Scotland for young people are a major issue. He would like to see fewer young Scots move away to find work - and believes this is more likely to happen under a truly independent Scottish government that is freer to invest locally.
"If a young person, say under 24, wants to start a business in Scotland today, the support they get in Scotland - we're beginning to get there and support young enterprises - and try to make a difference is not as much as it could be," he says. "In England, there is more support for those people. And I'm all for people, so long as they've got a bit of sense and business acumen, who want to try something getting that chance."
Furthermore, he would like to give a full-fledged Scottish government a chance to stop the drain of industry and businesses, and investment, out of Scotland generally. While industries moving abroad in search of cost reduction and easier business regimes is something every developed nation has had to grin and bear for some time now, perhaps an independent Scotland could slow or stop the drift, he suggests.
JobCentre support for the unemployed could also be better tailored to Scottish needs, he says.
"Give Scotland more powers at country level," says Stirling.
And regardless of only 8.4 per cent of the population living in Scotland, Scottish infrastructure requires more investment, something that could potentially be managed better from Holyrood.
"I do think England has done best out of being in the UK - particularly London. I come down to London quite often on business, I use the train, I use the underground, I use buses more in England than I ever do in Scotland because the infrastructure in England is far superior."
Many unanswered questions
Stuart Little, director of Lanarkshire IT provider Provista, says it is extremely difficult to tell going by the ‘yes' and ‘no' campaigns whether Scotland would be better off independent or staying with the UK - even though the ‘yes' campaigners seem to have done better so far.
"I must stress that these are my own personal views, not those of Provista UK or anyone else I represent," he says. "But both campaigns have made claims and counter-claims that contradict each other. I feel there are too many unanswered questions on currency and other major issues."
Even with increased oil and gas revenues, Scotland may have to spend more, potentially cancelling out the benefits and still being worse off. The trouble is that no one really seems to know the real facts. Furthermore, there remains a "lack of clarity on currency and Europe" as well as other issues, he says.
"We purchase products such as Cisco hardware and software and our purchase costs are directly linked to the US dollar. Any weakness in Scotland's future currency compared with the rest of the UK and Europe could make imports more expensive and thus affect our ability to do business in Scotland and the wider UK," Little says.
"I expect that we will still have oil being extracted and as such IT will be required to support the industry so I am not sure the IT industry will experience much change."
One advantage of independence, however, might be a reduction in corporation tax, which would help Scottish businesses and encourage investment that supports growth. Yet if the top income tax rate of 50 per cent is introduced, IT consultants and specialists - who are often highly paid - could be affected and the result could be brain drain, he adds.
"This could wipe out any advantage in corporation tax reduction. So if a 50 per cent rate is introduced, the threshold should be high - above £150,000 for example," Little says.
"In the short term there should be little difference but longer term I do not know. If we do not know what currency or tax system we will have, it is hard to predict and could go either way."
Could a ‘yes' vote lead to further UK fragmentation? "If it does work well for Scotland."
And if Scotland votes ‘no' tomorrow?
"The UK government needs to ensure that a review is carried out with the objective to help all regions of the UK with more powers, such as North of England and South West as well as Scotland. Medium and long-term policies should be planned and implemented to ensure the UK has more balance," Little suggests.
"Being in a networking technology business I do not believe distance is as big an issue as the internet and modern communications shrink the world. The problem is that people need to ensure equal opportunity is given to all regions."
United we stand
Alan O'Connor, group managing director of Fifeshire-based AOC Group Queensway Data Centres, says: " I firmly believe we are stronger as a united nation both politically and economically. The impact of a mass exodus by institutional employers from Scotland would be devastating for our economy."
If Scotland votes ‘yes' tomorrow, the key issue will be an improving economy, he notes.
"Scotland has a deficit of several billions and it is clear our GDP will suffer further with independence. It is vital government takes radical steps to ensure the country can pay its way. In an independent nation, Westminster is less obligated to cover our deficit."
And if the people decide we're better together?
"The rest of the UK should embrace this as being in Britain is about being a stronger part of the EU than it could perhaps otherwise be," O'Connor says.
He believes that, beyond several recessions, Scotland has generally prospered as part of the UK, both in economic and quality-of-life terms. "We are a more educated and cultured nation than ever before. The UK is part of a global economy and Scotland for the past 300 years or so has very much been part of that," he says.
The expansion of the services sector has to an extent replenished the revenues lost from the decline of manufacturing in recent decades. And Scotland nevertheless remains a "stable and economic" place for quality manufacturing, O'Connor maintains, as well as for agriculture and fishing.
"Campaigners have played on people's emotions and there are too many flags being waved. Important questions about a devolved Scotland's financial situation largely remain unanswered," he agrees.
Politicians should listen more to industry leaders on issues such as oil, and consider how political instability ahead of the referendum has already negatively affected the pound in the currency markets, he says.
"One only has to refer to recent press where among others Lloyds Banking Group, RBS and Standard Life have indicated they will move their respective head offices if Scotland becomes independent," O'Connor warns.
"Many other institutions and PLCs will likely follow suit, resulting in mass job loss across Scotland. An independent Scottish government can ill afford the loss of revenue this would create and our public services would diminish unless taxes are raised substantially. This would in turn drive more of our working population away and could tip the country into depression."
Independence, for O'Connor, means fragmentation - something Scotland as well as the rest of the UK can do without. He points to Norway which, following independence, suffered its worst financial depression ever at that time. "It has taken 200 years for Norway to get where it is today."
Infrastructure is critical
Darren Farnden, head of marketing at Telford, Shropshire-based Entanet, says at the moment it is very difficult to know what might happen if Scotland votes for independence but whatever happens, telecommunications infrastructure should be invested in.
"All we do know is that the Scottish government plans to provide a Universal Service Obligation (USO) and they are expecting to invest a further £2.5m in the Community Broadband Scotland fund to help deliver this," he says.
For resellers serving the Scottish market, voting "aye" may mean added complications and expense and this expense is likely to be passed on to Scottish customers. Again, there are no concrete answers yet but there has already been talk of a new communications regulator, says Farnden.
"This alone could make it more difficult and costly for UK-based ISPs to cater for both the independent Scottish and existing UK market - serving both may result in them needing to comply with differing regulations, procedures and policies, for example. Arguably then, independence might not be good for ISPs based outside Scotland."
Farnden reiterates also the potential for different tax rates and a new currency, not to mention different laws and regulations affecting things such as T&Cs, contract clauses, data retention and privacy. "The list of potential hassles is quite extensive. If such ‘complications' arise, any incurred costs are likely to be passed on to the end user, pushing up the costs for Scottish customers," he explains.