Educated Bett for a digital future

A US futurist at Bett has made four predictions about the market for schools IT 10 years from now. Fleur Doidge reports

Thirty years ago, the annual Bett education technology show began. In 1985, computers had just begun popping up in the classroom, often just as a few precious Apple IIe machines shared among groups of pupils once or twice a week. Few foresaw the diversity and prevalence of education technology in schools around the world today.

At Bett this year, US-based futurist, educator and author Professor Bryan Alexander looked ahead to 2025, extrapolating from market features already in evidence to make predictions about future education tech requirements a decade hence.

Education in the year 2025, he suggested, will likely be characterised by four realities that influence the learning technologies that will be successfully sold and implemented. In no particular order, they are: a fall of the siloes, the birth of the healthcare nation, peak higher education, and a kind of narrative-driven renaissance period.

Open versus proprietary tech

"Let's assume that open has triumphed over proprietary," he said. "Open software, open content, open technologies, all for the public to see. Open access. And if you have more access to more content, you can then do more stuff. In fact, there's simply a lot more information out there."

When open technology takes control, one probable result will be a lot more "remixing" of content to produce innovation and create opportunities. Many technologies currently in siloes may begin to be merged or at least forced to interoperate, and more IT professionals will need to engage with this kind of innovation, whether by creating it, supporting it or managing it.

Certain commercial platforms currently popular in the education market could struggle against a rising tide of personal learning environments with built-in service automation.

There will be negative impacts from a collapsing-silo trend as well, he noted. Malware could gain and privacy fall; even as information prices drop, some other costs could rise. And the quality of innovation in some instances may be uneven.

Sectors such as printing and publishing will be irrevocably altered, while institutions such as Hollywood and Bollywood may suffer as the creative hierarchy flattens out and more consumers, especially students, have opportunities to create and collaborate.

Alexander said in such a world it will be increasingly difficult for the IT department at schools and campuses to keep up with the transformations - hinting at an expanding role for third-party specialists such as distribution-channel technology and services providers.

"Outsourcing and offshoring therefore would be much more common," he said.

The reverse could happen as well, though, Alexander has noted - with internet and software increasingly becoming divided into walled, commercialised gardens, if proprietary instead increases its hold over open source.

The healthcare nation

His next prediction for 2025 was the rise of healthcare as a sector to the point where it overshadowed other areas, in part because of the massive amount of investment required. This would partly be a function of the ageing populations of many countries, particularly in the so-called developed world.

"I'd like you to imagine a world where healthcare is now the leading sector of the economy," Alexander said. "Most developed countries spend around 10 per cent or a little bit less on healthcare; the US spends 20 per cent. And just imagine that now keeps growing and growing."

This would not only create new opportunities in niche areas - in learning technology that helps the aged, for example - but would profoundly affect the overall pattern of investment in both the public and private sectors.

In schools and universities, there would likely be more healthcare and medical science programmes that would require specific technological assistance. Meanwhile, there would also be a "feminisation" on campus, driven by an increased focus on female needs, not least because women tend to live longer than men. Already 55 per cent of US undergraduates are female, and that is expected to rise to 70 per cent by 2025.

"There may be more space sharing [on campus] with clinics and hospitals," Alexander said. "And medical figures could loom as large as sports heroes today."

Higher education passes peak

At the same time, he said, higher education in general is likely in 2025 to have peaked as a sector. Already, many believe that the developed world turns out more graduates than it needs for the jobs that are available - a costly process which may become increasingly hard to fund or justify, either by governments or the private sector. Already, there are signs that university enrolments are decreasing, Alexander noted.

"There is demographic decline - fewer young people - accelerated prices and sunk costs, low public funding, and alternatives [to traditional education] rising," he said. "There are buildings on campuses that you can't unbuild; tenured faculty that you can't 'un-tenure'."

An 18-year-old in 2025 would probably be able to complete his or her education without leaving home. Foreign enrolments would become even more important. College campuses could change accordingly, perhaps being used more by outside businesses and events, and with fragmented courses and curricula that would have a lower barrier to entry.

"Vocational tech classes will be more widespread, and apprenticeships accepted as career paths," he suggested.

Services and solutions that address these needs would therefore likely find a market.

Surge of story, social and gaming

The fourth trend could be summarised by the word "renaissance", he suggested. There would be an explosion in storytelling and narrative, overlapping with the booming social media and gaming sectors. Gamification of projects would become increasingly important - and the results would be clear to see within teaching and learning practices, processes and tools.

"Games developers would become role models; they are major skill sets and they get a lot of great stuff done. And this 18-year-old in 2025 will have a hard time imagining a world without gaming," Alexander said. "Most of their work, most of their schooling, will have been gamified."

He said it is not necessarily clear which of the four trends forecast will dominate, but it is nevertheless true that the beginnings of all four can be clearly seen in the IT world that schools and educators are trying to adapt to and integrate with. That is the challenge and the opportunity for technology providers.