Demand for small notebooks flattens out

Research from competing analysts agrees rush for netbooks and mini-notebooks is over

Pygott: The demand for netbooks is falling due to several factors

Netbook sales are flattening out with mainstream notebooks gaining ground in the second quarter of 2010, according to Context.

Marie-Christine Pygott, senior research analyst at Context, said overall notebook sales in UK distribution by revenue were up 19 per cent for all of Q2 year on year, but the netbook sub-category began to brake, slowing from a 49 per cent growth rate by unit in April to just seven per cent in May and six per cent in June.

Excluding netbooks, notebook sales by revenue for the quarter leaped 22 per cent year on year, and 25 per cent by unit sales – reflecting the continuing decline in average selling price (ASP).

“The reasons for the slowdown in netbook growth coupled with stronger mainstream notebook sales vary,” said Pygott.

Mainstream portables have benefited from Intel’s processor launches this year, she said, and consumer confidence is rising. Consumers are also becoming more aware of netbook limitations.

Rival analyst Gartner came to similar conclusions about the mini-notebook market.

Raphael Vasquez, research analyst at Gartner, said the global mini-notebook share, including netbooks, of mobile PC shipments declined for the second consecutive quarter in Q2 of 2010, falling to less than 18 per cent.

“We still think the mini-notebook has a place in the mobile PC market, but not as a substitute for a standard mobile PC. Indeed, the recent decline in mini-notebooks' share of the mobile PC market reflects a general realisation among buyers that mini-notebooks are less-than-perfect substitutes for standard low-end laptops,” he said.

Buyers who once would have bought a mini-notebook because of their low price now seem more inclined to buy a low-end standard notebook, especially since the prices of the two have converged.

“Mini-notebooks are slowly but surely carving out a market niche for themselves as companion devices. However, the emergence of media tablets is a growing threat to that niche,” added Vasquez.

Mini-notebooks’ share of the mobile PC market peaked in late 2009 at 20 per cent, according to Gartner, and is tipped to fall to just 10 per cent by late 2014.

Gartner also expects lower-priced iPad imitations to start to take big bites out of the mini-notebook market from next year.