Unix finds unlikely saviour in Big Blue
Analysis SCO/IBM Monterey project set to tip balance in sector.
Unix was brought into the commercial sphere from its academic resting place in the 1970s by a concerted effort to provide a counter-balance to the might of IBM. How odd, then, that the Holy Grail of Unix - coherence around a common standard - seems more likely due to a pact led by IBM.
The deal announced last week for IBM and SCO to stroll into the enterprise Unix sunset hand in hand seems inevitable. The two need each other to establish a dominating standard for the forthcoming Intel Merced chip that puts Intel on equal footing with the rump of the Risc competition.
The participation of Sequent and the whole-hearted endorsement of Intel makes the SCO/IBM Monterey project a likely candidate for the commercial success that leads to de facto standardhood.
Licence shifting counts but is not in itself enough to chart a clear course to the future of Unix against the rising Redmond tide. Regardless of its marginal profitability, SCO is without a doubt the Intel Unix market leader. It ships more Unix server software than its next four rivals combined, accounting for more than 41 per cent of the entire market.
In a market otherwise led by large vendors with proprietary axes to grind, SCO's status as an independent software company without the complications of a hardware product to shift has opened many doors. But its lack of size and reach in a consolidating industry has also kept many doors closed.
Although SCO is the owner of Unix, it clearly could not ensure its future as an open system.
No one buys operating systems to meet business goals - the software that runs on it is what makes the sale. NT has an advantage in that it has attracted a lot of developer mind share, but Monterey provides a strong distraction.
Ports of all-important IBM middleware, to be done on a priority basis, will make Unixware7 and Monterey uniquely suitable for sale into IBM's enterprise accounts, where products such as Tivoli and DB2 are heavily utilised. This will also raise the profile of Intel Unix as an enterprise contender.
Monterey also leads as the Unix to follow on the back of the concurrent IBM/Intel deal to support independent software vendors (ISVs) efforts to develop for the combined SCO/IBM operating system. Monterey is a safe bet for an ISV's porting effort and will likely receive a top priority on the release upgrades.
IBM and Intel will create a fund with tens of millions of dollars (unannounced but the amount is reported to exceed $30 million over several years) to support ISV recruitment and porting efforts for both Unixware7 and the Monterey IA-64 Unix.
The alliance between IBM and SCO will tip the balance in the Unix market.
Big Blue has never led in Unix despite its promises when it launched the RS/6000 line five years ago. Its server sales have done well but it has never made a dent in the workstation market.
On current statistics, SCO and IBM have well over 50 per cent share and the workstation market looks increasingly likely to fall to NT/Windows 2000 in the not too distant future.
There are other Unix systems to be reckoned with. The most vulnerable IA-64 contender is Compaq/Digital's Bravo Unix based on Digital's OSF/1 implementation.
Sequent - Compaq/Digital's erstwhile Bravo partner - has thrown its lot in with IBM and SCO. Although Compaq has sold more than $2 billion in servers running SCO's operating system, its endorsement of Bravo was not forthcoming and with no other partners in sight, the development looks weak.
Sun has just refreshed Solaris and is ready to do battle at the high end against IBM in Risc server sales and has a credible product for 32-bit Intel chips. The viability of its 64-bit Intel product has to be questioned in light of Monterey. IBM claimed Sun was invited to participate but Sun denied this.
Sun has never been successful with its Solaris-on-Intel products and it faces high odds against the Monterey combination, particularly since Intel has given its blessing to the SCO/IBM union as the preferred volume Unix for Merced. It all comes down to volume - with SCO on board, IBM's Intel volume has a commanding head start.
Hewlett Packard is stuck in an awkward transition between its PA Risc Unix and its declared future on Merced. In the shakeout to come, it is hard to see HP allaying itself with either Sun or Compaq/Digital. The future of its own Unix is uncertain.
The joker in all this is Linux. In terms of units shifted or dollars spent in development, it is nowhere, but in the minds of Linux zealots, there is a bright future ahead. While it has been slow to enter into corporate accounts, the enthusiasm of the Linux crowd is capable of exerting market pressure on even Microsoft. IBM and SCO have committed to including binary and source compatibility with Unixware7 and Monterey to harness the ground swell of popularity.
There are bound to be more alliances made and broken before Merced-powered servers start rewriting enterprise computing history with Unix. The combination of SCO and IBM looks to be hard to beat but defeat has been snatched from the jaws of victory in the Unix market before.
Where Microsoft, Sun, HP and Compaq/Digital are all vying for the enterprise server business, the outcome is anyone's guess but the future looks bright for Monterey.
UNIX SERVER MARKET SHARE 1997
Unix server software market share for 1997. Courtesy of SCO and IDC.
SCO is the Intel Unix market leader, shipping more Unix server software than its next four competitors combined. It accounts for over 41 per cent of the entire market.