Comms winners and losers of the past year
Channel players identify the year's highs and lows and forecast what we have to look forward to next year
Place your bets: As venture capitalists re-emerge, they will be putting their money on new technologies in 2010
Despite the gloomy economic backdrop, 2009 has seen the usual hype in the comms market. As the year draws to a close, channel players have reflected on which technologies burned brightest this year, and which were ultimately damp squibs.
Unified communications (UC) has long been one of the market’s most talked-about technologies. In May, IDC predicted European UC spending would grow more than fivefold from its 2008 level of $2.6bn (£1.6bn) to reach $13.5bn in 2013.
But the definition of what constitutes UC is still opaque. A month prior to the IDC projections, research house Forrester claimed Europe’s UC spend was $792m in 2008 – less than a third of the amount reported by IDC. In July, Infonetics Research claimed UC spending across the world was just $523.4m last year.
UC details
Ian Cummings, EMEA vice president at network analysis specialist Network Instruments, claimed UC technologies have become much more prevalent.
“We have seen growth in UC, and voice over IP has become established,” he said. “A year or two ago it was still seen as greatly experimental, but it is no longer seen as leading edge.”
But Cummings cautioned that there is often a disparity between perception and reality. “I have seen UC on its perfect platform – Microsoft PowerPoint,” he said. “But I am not sure I have seen it in real life.”
Bob Dalton, managing director of Intact Integrated Services, claimed most firms investing in UC do so for cost savings, rather than high-end functionality.
“Selling more complex UC-style solutions have been challenging in 2009, with businesses focusing on controlling costs and optimising performance,” he added.
Scott Nursten, managing director of VAR s2s, claimed many businesses are holding off on the bells and whistles for the time being.
“There has been a tail-off in the advanced applications that go around UC – things like presence,” he said. “People are looking for working phone systems and obvious things that people need in a call centre.”
Many vendors and channel firms have pushed high-end videoconferencing and telepresence this year. Simon Parry, UK product manager for service providers Telindus, said the jury was still out.
“Videoconferencing and telepresence are still not where the hype says they should be,” he said. “Although some organisations have embraced telepresence, it still lacks the critical mass and vendor interworking that will transform it into an everyday technology.”
Terry Dwyer, managing director of videoconferencing VAR mvision claimed 2009 had been “a boom year” for the technology. But he cautioned that market consolidation could drive some resellers to the wall, singling out Cisco’s planned acquisition of Tandberg as a key factor.
“This could bring 500 Cisco dealers into Tandberg territory, and it is a damn sight easier and cheaper for them to become videoconferencing certified than vice versa,” he said.
Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) was another technology hyped last year. But research published by In-Stat in August claimed there is a disparity between the technological development and end users’ appetite.
A year of change
In-Stat analyst David Lemelin said: “IT managers, service providers and integrators may have a good understanding of FMC’s benefits, but until workers actually use its capabilities, the benefits will go unrealised.”
The telecoms landscape has undergone a year of change, with major carriers consolidating and government legislation setting the agenda for comms provision.
O-bit Telecom chief executive Dave Breith said providers have gone back to basics to ride out a tough year.
“Have there really been any new or exciting products in 2009?” he said. “There has been lots of talk about hosted IP telephony and convergence services, but I think carriers and resellers have been concentrating on their core business serv ices.”
Breith claimed bread-and-butter broadband sales are still providing the bulk of growth.
Richard Heap, director of technology, media and telecommunications at auditor BDO, also saw growth in the broadband arena, singling out satellite broadband as one to watch.
“MTI Technology will be the first provider to launch high-speed satellite broadband services next year,” he said. “Could this be the beginning of the end for the 3G base station?”
Looking ahead, David Galton-Fenzi, group sales director at distributor Zycko, said that next year could provide a wealth of new technologies.
“A lot of 2010 excitement will lie in new development as venture capitalists emerge and investment in exciting technology pioneers becomes a realistic prospect,” he said.
s2s’ Nursten believes one of the recession’s most lasting after-effects will be end-users’ insistence on value. He claimed IT decision makers would continue to demand return on investment within nine to 12 months, rather than three to five years.
“Customers are more savvy and have done more competitive analysis,” he said. “They question whether the technologies can add value.”