The future of computing is in 64 bits
The future of computing is in 64 bits
From as long ago as 1990, the 64bit chip looked set to revolutionise the world of workstations, servers and high performance computing... but it had to wait for the development of 64bit applications. Now it might just happen, says Martyn Lynch
The thing about 64bit computing is that it is not new but, for the first time, it’s safe to say that it is the future of computing for the next decade at least. The promise that 64bit processing would change the computing world has been around since the Risc processing days, when 64bit processors from IBM, Silicon Graphics, Digital and Sun ruled the Earth. Or, at least, the workstation, server and high-end computing markets.
There was a time when some believed Risc processing would dominate those markets. History has shown, however, that things worked out a little differently. The partnership of faster and cheaper 32bit x86 processors and more robust Windows software finally forced its way into the server and workstation markets. Today, Risc processors are in the niche processing sector, with Intel and AMD chips dominating the entry-level and midrange server sectors.
That said, Risc processing was right about the brave new world where 64bit processors would rule. It was never going to happen, though, until a 64bit x86 chip arrived. Once AMD launched Opteron, the world’s first x86-based 64bit processor, in 2003, it was only a matter of time before Intel did the same.
It took Intel more than a year to get its 64bit act together, with desktop products only arriving in recent months. Despite this delay, AMD’s 64bit technology has been carving its way through the specialist server markets and, increasingly, the processor has been showing up in high-end PCs.
More recently, Intel’s 64bit Extreme Edition Pentium 4, and the cheaper Pentium D alternatives, are just starting to do the same. Even some notebooks from the likes of Hewlett-Packard (HP) are boasting 64bit AMD Turion processors. So, just how successful is 64bit technology right now and how long before it succeeds the hugely dominant 32bit chips used by most businesses today?
“These [64bit] servers are becoming the norm, at least in the high performance computing sector (HPC),” explained Terry Fisher, business development manager for the HPC division at VAR Compusys. “All of our mainstream servers are based on 64bit AMD and Intel processors – we are not quoting 32bit based servers any more. Some manufacturers are putting a premium on 32bit to force customers over to 64bit. Everyone wants to move to fewer product lines. We are finding 64bit chips cheaper to buy than 32bit alternatives and this has been ongoing for the past six months.”
Stewart Hayward, commercial director of WStore UK, added: “Yes, 64bit is entering the mainstream and at some time in the future there will be no other option. But I don’t think it will be adopted as the norm until well after Longhorn (Windows Vista) next year and maybe not even until long after that.
It could be as late as 2009 before 64bit hardware is ubiquitous. Microsoft’s claim that all new servers will be 64bit by the end of the year is just not feasible. We are talking to companies now that have nine month roadmaps and they don’t see 64bit servers until their next cycle, which could be up to three years out. There is a point when 64bit will become a no-brainer for businesses, but we are a long way from that.”
Simon Cole, EMEA ISV manager for AMD, said: “The major advantage you get with the 64bit technology is a limitless address space so any market sector with very big applications is already using 64bit processors.
“Right now these include companies running very large databases, business intelligence, high performance computing and scientific applications. Those using simulation and weather predication software have been using 64bit and engineering has been a big 64bit user for some time. The next area to go 64bit is the 3D-modelling environment – many of the key software vendors are in the process of producing 64bit versions.”
But, while 64bit processors start to command the usual niche, high performance markets, it remains to be seen if the mainstream businesses are convinced. Hardware for hardware’s sake does not wash with most companies where return on investment has become the mantra for the cost-conscious and harassed IT manager.
The problem 64bit technology suffers here is not dissimilar to the ‘cart before the horse’ analogy. As usual, the hardware is breaking new ground and those with the need and the spare cash are snapping it up for the big performance boost.
The truth is that most businesses do not need the kind of horsepower that 64bit processors promise. At least not at the current price point. For many companies, a dual-core 32bit processor looks like the next, most likely, step in terms of price and performance.
As a result, there is no immediate pressure on the software vendors to create 64bit versions of their 32bit software. And that’s the problem. Businesses are not ready to invest in 64bit systems when there is very little 64bit software to take advantage of that extra speed.
“Our business customers do not see any real benefit to moving to 64bit yet,” said Hayward. “Why bring in a server now that is not fully tested and for which there are very few applications – bar niche applications – and which they may experience some compatibility problems with their existing set-up? If Microsoft can persuade people to upgrade to Vista then 64bit will get a boost.
“That said, we don’t think the take up of Office 12 [due at the same time as Vista] will be that great. For instance, when you buy Office software licensing you can get guaranteed upgrades by taking out a Software Assurance license, which gives you two years’ cover for any new upgrades. However, most of the customers we are dealing with are not bothering to join the Assurance programme because they see no real boost in benefit by moving to the next version of Office. That does not bode too well for the next operating system.”
Fisher explained: “64bit is not really going to speed up your application unless your application is 64bit. The 64bit mainstream applications are coming but it will be another six to 12 months. The ISVs are the key to the universal acceptance of 64bit. We need mainstream applications to support 64bit processors.
Until the 64bit version of Windows XP arrived they could see no real reason to upgrade their applications. Now it’s here there is a certain pace gathering between software rivals to produce 64bit versions of their software.
“For businesses there’s no real need to upgrade yet,” he continued. “Everything is driven by the applications, not the hardware. Software drives the purchase and outside of the specialist market sectors this is not happening. Things will pick up too when the price of 64bit processors from Intel and AMD start dropping down the value chain, as they will in the coming months.”
The adoption of 64bit would be more widespread if Microsoft had come out with a 64bit version of Windows when it said it would. AMD had been banking on early Windows support of its new 64bit technology which, in turn, would have driven software developers to start work early on 64bit versions of their software.
While Microsoft cannot be blamed for the slow uptake of 64bit hardware, its constant delays did nothing to help the technology along, or to allow AMD to make the most of the huge lead it had opened on Intel in the 64bit x86 space.
After previous delays, Windows XP Professional x64 Edition and Windows Server 2003 x64 Edition were finally due to arrive at the start and end of 2004, respectively. They only arrived in April this year. At that stage AMD had had 64bit server processors for two years and 64bit desktop processors for 18 months. At the same time the new operating system arrived, Intel had released its own 64bit x86 chips.
“The delays that Microsoft had with its 64bit Windows held the whole industry up, not just AMD,” said a charitable Cole. “We had 64bit Linux from day one and we had some big ISVs on board too.”
Fisher added: “I don’t think it’s necessarily slowed up the take-up of the 64bit hardware, but the delays have put off Windows buyers. There’s been nothing holding back the Linux camps, though, where the take-up has been huge thanks to Linux being available for 64bit from the start.”
The latest study from Mercury Research shows just how successful AMD’s 64bit technology has proved. AMD’s Q2 2005 share of the worldwide server marketplace has hit 11.2 per cent for second quarter 2005 – the first time it has ever topped 10 per cent. What is even more remarkable is that the growth has been achieved in two years and with 64bit Opteron processors. In Q1, AMD had 7.4 per cent of the x86 server market, which means the growth rate in one quarter was around 50 per cent.
Mercury analyst Dean McCarron said: “The growth was very dramatic,” and claims that at least one AMD customer is ordering an extra big helping of 64bit server chips.
Of course, Intel was late to the x86 64bit market by more than a year, only really getting its hardware out in recent months. That said, has AMD’s lead really hurt the chip giant? And what does Intel’s arrival in the 64bit space mean for the market?
“Intel’s delayed entry has made a huge difference to AMD,” said Fisher. “AMD has just increased its server share to over 10 per cent and all of that is down to Opterons, which are all 64bit. AMD has gone from zero to 11 per cent, which is an indication of how well 64bit computing has done in just two years. That 11 per cent will soon be 20 per cent – especially with HP and IBM weighing in so heavily behind Opteron. HP can’t build Opteron machines fast enough at the moment.”
Daniel Fleischer, senior analyst with IDC’s European server solutions team, tends to agree. IDC found that the switch from x86 32bit to x86 64bit processors continues to accelerate, with 64bit extension systems now constituting 37 per cent of the EMEA x86 server landscape. He said: “Mirroring the global picture, HP proved particularly successful with its four-way Opteron-based servers, keeping system share for Opteron in EMEA at 89.4 per cent.”
Fellow market watcher Gartner is also advising companies to prepare for the shift to 64bit computing now, due partly to the amount of application recoding that will need to be carried out. But, while 64bit hardware is taking off, Gartner claimed that the migration will be slow and steady, thanks to software-related hurdles.
“Microsoft confirmed that the next versions of Windows [Vista] will support both 32bit and 64bit processing – ending the speculation that it will be a ‘64bit-only’ release,” John Enck, vice president at Gartner explained. “It signals that the industry-wide transition to 64bit computing will be a steady process, rather than a sudden leap to a new platform.”
Established as the platform of choice in niche sectors, mainstream businesses may dip their toe in the water, but there will be no wholesale migration until the software developers start churning out 64bit versions of the leading applications.