Notebook sales cool off
Growth rate has declined since January, research shows
The notebook juggernaut is slowing down, according to the latest sales figures from seven leading European markets.
Despite strong sales, there is evidence that the growth rate has declined sharply since the start of the year, according to analyst Context, which tracked actual PC sales to end-users by resellers.
In the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands, notebook sales showed an increase of 17.5 per cent in May, compared with the same month in 2003. However, the growth rate for May was noticeably lower than the 37.3 per cent sales growth figure recorded for January and the 42.7 per cent in February.
Since then, the growth rate has declined on a month-by-month basis, according to Context. The growth rate fell to 30 per cent in March and then down to 20.3 per cent in April. Early indicators for June suggest that the rate will topple to just under 10 per cent.
Context reported that the slowing growth rate, combined with a spate of notebook price cuts, are the clearest signs yet that the surge in notebook sales that kicked off in 2003 could be cooling down.
"The volumes have slowed down a bit now," said Jeremy Davies, senior partner at Context.
"This isn't because the market is tanking; it is just a natural slowing process. It's not a big surprise. Even though the growth rates are declining we are still seeing very strong growth, regardless. In any other industry vendors would be opening the champagne for growth rates of just five or six per cent.
"If you look back, you can see that most of the growth has been happening in the low-end, price-sensitive part of the market - the rate of price erosion here has been dramatic. Prices are so low that you can get a very powerful notebook at a very good price.
"In business, the trend towards replacing PCs with notebooks is being seen increasingly as a viable alternative."
The overall growth rates might be slowing, but Ingram Micro has yet to see any drop off, claimed Matt Sanderson, head of category, hardware at the distributor.
"We are not seeing this slowdown. Between notebooks and desktops, our overall revenue is up," he said.
"Our mobile business is stronger now than it was earlier in the year. It was 45 per cent of our systems business at the start of the year, and it is now up to 51 per cent. The shift is not because PC sales are falling but because notebook sales are still growing - especially in the SME space."