Gartner warns memory crunch will slash PC shipments as vendors raise prices

Analyst house predicts double-digit PC shipment decline in 2026 as soaring DRAM and SSD costs ripple through the channel

Global PC and smartphone shipments are set to fall sharply in 2026 as soaring memory prices drive device costs higher and extend refresh cycles, according to new research from Gartner.

The analyst house forecasts worldwide PC shipments will decline 10.4 per cent year-on-year in 2026, while smartphone shipments will fall 8.4 per cent, largely due to surging prices for DRAM and solid-state storage components.

Gartner estimates combined DRAM and SSD prices could rise around 130 per cent by the end of this year, pushing average PC prices up 17 per cent and smartphone prices up 13 per cent compared with 2025 levels.

“This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner.

The warning lands as vendors and distributors across the channel are already grappling with a deepening memory supply crunch that is beginning to push up hardware prices.

Upgrade cycles lengthen

The cost increases are expected to have a knock-on effect on the lifecycle of endpoint devices.

Gartner forecasts that by the end of 2026, the average PC lifespan will increase by about 15 per cent for enterprise buyers and 20 per cent for consumers, as organisations and individuals delay replacements in response to higher prices.

While this could soften short-term demand for new hardware, it may also create security and management challenges for IT teams forced to support ageing fleets of devices.

Vendors already raising prices

Channel partners have begun seeing the impact first-hand.

This week, Lenovo warned partners that pricing for some commercial client devices will change in March due to the ongoing global memory chip shortage, with certain orders potentially needing to be repriced depending on shipment timing.

The move follows other vendor actions across the ecosystem as hardware makers attempt to protect margins amid rapidly escalating component costs.

Cisco this week announced it is cancelling compute promotions and discount incentives including deal registration effective immediately in the wake of rising memory prices.

Meanwhile, partners have also reported disruptions to pricing programmes and deal structures as vendors adjust to the new cost environment.

Distributors say supply constraints and rising memory costs are increasingly straining the IT supply chain and impacting product availability across multiple vendors.

“There’s a shortage issue, and a big price increase. I think price is an even bigger issue than the shortage,” TD SYNNEX CEO Patrick Zammit told CRN.

“And so how will the OEMs handle it? Quote validities have been reduced dramatically from 30 [days] to 15 days. And the most contentious topic is, what is the backlog today? Is it going to be re-priced or not?”

Channel implications

For the channel, the first half of 2026 will be a critical window for vendors and partners to adjust pricing strategies and protect margins before component-cost inflation intensifies later in the year.

Rising device prices and longer refresh cycles are likely to reshape buying patterns, potentially increasing demand for services around device lifecycle management, refurbishment and security for older hardware.