Smartphone sales continue upward trajectory

Latest Gartner figures predict 58 per cent global sales growth in 2011

Global smartphone sales are set to rocket by nearly 60 per cent this year, according to the latest figures released by Gartner.

The market watcher predicted sales of 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 per cent increase on 2010.

By the end of the year, Android will become the most popular operating system (OS) worldwide and will account for 49 per cent of the smartphone market by 2012, compared with 22 per cent market share in 2010, the analyst predicted.

Sales of open OS devices will account for 26 per cent of all mobile handset device sales in 2011, and are expected to surpass the one billion mark by 2015, when they will account for 47 per cent of the total mobile device market.

Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner, said: “By 2015, 67 per cent of all open OS devices will have an ASP of $400 (£245) or below, proving that smartphones have finally been truly democratised.

“As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, prices will decrease to further benefit consumers. Android’s position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid-to-low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets.”

Apple’s iOS market share will rise slightly from 15.7 per cent in 2010, peaking at 19.4 per cent in 2011, and dropping back down to 17.2 per cent in 2015, the analyst predicted.

Gartner bases this drop on the assumption that Apple will be interested in maintaining margins rather than pursuing market share by changing its pricing strategy, thus limiting adoption in emerging regions.

Research in Motion’s share will drop steadily from a peak of 16 per cent in 2010 to 11.1 per cent in 2015, Gartner said, while Microsoft will see a reversal in fortune thanks to its partnership with Nokia, rising from 4.2 per cent market share in 2010 to 19.5 per cent in 2015.

The analyst also said new device types will widen ecosystems.

Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner, said: “The growth in sales of media tablets expected in 2011 and future years will widen the ecosystems that open OS communications devices have created. This will, by and large, function more as a driver than an inhibitor for sales of open OS devices.

“Consumers who already own an open OS communications device will be drawn to media tablets and more often than not, to media tablets that share the same OS as their smartphone,” Milanesi added. “This allows consumers to be able to share the same experience across devices as well as apps, settings or game scores. At the same time, tablet users who do not own a smartphone could be prompted to adopt one to be able to share the experience they have on their tablets.”