HDD shortage unlikely to hit Q4 PC sales

Notebook vendors appear to have sufficient stockpiles for Q4, says IHS iSuppli

Almost a third of hard disk drive (HDD) production in Q4 will be lost due to the Thai floods, but PC shipments are unlikely to be hit this year.

That is the view of IHS iSuppli, which predicted that the HDD industry will suffer its worst downturn for three years as a result of the disaster.

Q4 shipments are set to fall 28 per cent sequentially, leading prices to spike by 10 per cent, the analyst said.

The shortage is likely to be most felt in the notebook market as the affected plants – including those of Western Digital and Toshiba – make devices designed for mobile computers.

However, IHS iSuppli said it does not expect a disruption in notebook shipments this year, concluding that the PC industry appears to have sufficient stockpiles to last through Q4. This is despite notebook vendor Acer warning on Friday that it will hike its prices in mid-November to cope with sourcing difficulties.

"Just the same, with HDD production disruptions expected to last at least six months, the shortage could impact notebook PC production in the first quarter of 2012," added the analyst.

Thailand is the world's second-largest HDD producer – behind only China – said the analyst. Some 30 per cent of HDD production will be lost in Q4 as a result of the floods, it estimated.

The fall-out will also likely see Western Digital fall from first to third place in terms of HDD shipments, with Toshiba set to fall from fourth to fifth.