Canalys: Global smartphone and tablet shipments set to soar
Latest research reveals Asia-Pacific will dominate the global smartphone market, but the US will top the tablet league
Asia-Pacific will continue to dominate the smartphone market in terms of volume until 2016, but the US will dominate the tablet market, latest Canalys research has claimed.
According to the market watcher, global annual smartphone shipments will reach 1.2 billion units, equating to CAGR of 19.5 per cent. Tablet shipments will hit 207 million globally, a CAGR of 26.8 per cent.
Apple’s latest offering, the iPhone 5, is gaining strong interest, and the promise of Windows 8 devices from Nokia and Samsung; new Android smartphones from Sony, Motorola and Samsung; and Amazon’s enhanced Kindle Fire tablets mean there is plenty for buyers to get their teeth into.
Rachel Lashford, managing director for mobile and APAC at Canalys, said: “The latest, in-depth research for our dedicated Smartphone Analysis China service reveals there will be a substantial increase in the number of first-time smartphone users in China over the next 12 months, while feature phone shipments will continue to decline. Smartphone sales will move beyond tier-one and tier-two cities.” China’s domestic feature phone vendors are rapidly moving over to smartphones, buoyed by low-cost offerings from chipset vendors such as MediaTek, Spreadtrum and Qualcomm’s QRD.
Nicole Peng, research director for China at Canalys, said: “Chipset vendors are reporting growing momentum in 2.5G (EDGE) smartphone solutions. For less-developed areas where 3G coverage is limited, 2.5G smartphones have advantages in cost and battery life. They are becoming popular with consumers, especially where prices are already close to those of feature phones.
“The tier-three and tier-four cities are feature phone vendors’ traditional strongholds. Local vendors will use their long-standing relationships with open channels and their established infrastructure to distribute smartphones, with or without operator subsidies, over the next few years.”
Canalys expects Latin America to grow the fastest in percentage terms, with CAGR of 27.3 per cent to 2016. Good double-digit growth is forecast in all countries, but Brazil and Mexico will account for more than half of all shipments in the region. Android will remain dominant, the analyst predicted, with 57 per cent of the smartphones shipped in 2016 running the operating system (up from 49 per cent in 2011). Apple’s share of the market will remain about the same at around 18 per cent, but it also forecast that Microsoft will make inroads over the coming years.
The picture is slightly different in the tablet market, with Apple taking just under half the market in 2016. The increase in Windows 8-based tablets set to be launched in the next couple of years will give Microsoft a 17 per cent share. Android will have a "relatively stable" share of 35 per cent.
Unlike the smartphone market, the tablet market will be dominated by the US, with shipments doubling to 88 million units by 2016. China will be the second-largest country market, with shipments of about 20 million, Canalys claimed.
Tim Coulling, analyst at Canalys, said: “Pads (tablets) are the fastest-growing consumer electronics products in history and are forecast to represent 29 per cent of total PC shipments in 2016. But the market remains dominated by a single vendor. Other PC and smartphone vendors are currently finding it hard to weaken Apple’s position.
“The only product that most would consider a big hit is the Kindle Fire, brought to market by Amazon – an internet retailer. Tight integration of hardware, software and services is a prerequisite for competing in the pad market, even at low price points, and fragmentation among other pad vendors’ offers helps Apple maintain its position.”