Forrester cuts IT spending growth forecast by three quarters

Apple and cloud the only bright spots as analyst adopts gloomy outlook for Europe

Forrester has cut its projections for global technology spending growth this year by more than three quarters as European enterprise and government investment dries up.

The analyst now expects total tech spending in 2012 to stand at marginally over $2tn (£1.25tn), representing growth of 1.3 per cent on last year. This forecast is less than a quarter of the 5.4 per cent rise the analyst predicted in January.

In 2013 the market is projected to expand 4.3 per cent as what Forrester characterises as "Europe's mild recession" comes to an end. But this forecast too has been chopped from the earlier projection of an eight per cent rise.

Public sector and business spending on IT goods and services in western and central Europe is projected to decline 7.7 per cent to $464bn. Spending growth is also set to slow in the emerging markets of Turkey, South Africa, Mexico and the BRIC countries. Following double-digit spikes in the past two years, growth across these nations is pegged at 4.8 per cent in 2012.

Forrester believes the client computing market will be the only sector of the IT hardware world to see market growth this year, with this "driven almost entirely by sales of Macs and iPads". Corporate spending on Wintel PCs will decline three per cent this year and will remain flat in 2013, claims the market watcher.

Meanwhile, businesses worldwide will spend a projected $7bn on Macs and $10bn on iPads this year. This is expected to expand to $23bn next year.

Growth in the software market will outpace that of the wider market as a whole this year, IDC believes, and the segment is set to be the fastest-growing market in 2013. The global worth of the SaaS space will jump 25 per cent to $49bn this year, said the analyst. Cloud is expected to account for 14 per cent of total commercial software spending this year.