Ultrabook 2012 sales forecast chopped in half

Vendors failing to get marketing right for overpriced devices

IHS iSuppli has cut its 2012 forecast for ultrabook shipments in half as uptake is stymied by high prices and ineffectual marketing.

This prediction comes less than a week after fellow analyst Context claimed the device is gaining a strong foothold in the UK as average selling prices (ASPs) come down.

But IHS has cut its prediction for ultrabook shipment volumes for this year to 10.3 million, less than half its earlier projected figure of 22 million. The market will begin to ignite next quarter, with the analyst expecting upwards of five million units to be shipped in Q4. For next year, IHS has revised down its forecast from 61 million to 44 million. By 2016, 95 million units are projected to be shipped annually.

The research house believes typical pricing of the form factor needs to come down from about $1,000 to something nearer $600 (£370). Key to the ultrabook market's success will be the launch around the middle of next year of the Intel's new microprocessor, known as Haswell.

Craig Stice, senior principal analyst for compute platforms at IHS, said: "There once was a time when everyone knew the ‘Dude, you're getting a Dell' slogan. Nowadays no one can remember a tag line for a new PC product, including for any single ultrabook.

"So far, the PC industry has failed to create the kind of buzz and excitement among consumers that is required to propel ultrabooks into the mainstream. This is especially a problem amid all the hype surrounding media tablets and smartphones. When combined with other factors, including prohibitively high pricing, this means that ultrabook sales will not meet expectations in 2012."