Gartner - startups born in digital era will kill off tech giants

Analyst reckons Cisco, Oracle and Microsoft could be heading for trouble as it unveils a flurry of predictions at its Symposium event

Well-established tech leaders such as Cisco, Oracle and Microsoft could be overtaken by a tranche of up-and-coming digital startups, according to Gartner, which has unveiled its latest series of long-term predictions as its Symposium event.

The analyst said that the kind of technology top IT vendors sold to businesses in the past is often not necessary for a digital future, meaning the current crop of industry leaders could be set for a fall in the not-too-distant future.

"[Top technology companies'] channel strategies, sales force and partner ecosystems [are] challenged by different competitors, new buying centres and changed customer business models," said Gartner research director Peter Sondergaard at the analyst global gathering in Orlando.

"Digitalisation creates an accelerated technology-driven startup environment across the globe. Many of the vendors who are on top today, such as Cisco, Oracle and Microsoft, may not be leaders in the digital industrial economy."

Elsewhere at the Gartner Symposium, the analyst set out what it reckons will be the top 10 tech trends for next year and beyond – with 3D printing, wearable tech and the Internet of Things popping up.

In seven years' time, five per cent of sales from the Global 1000 companies will be driven from data collected from wearable devices, it claimed, signalling the establishment of wearable tech as a mainstay in the industry.

"Wearable computing... is quickly moving into mainstream society, led by the growing, multibillion dollar health and fitness markets," it said. "Within five years, consumer wearables will become more sophisticated, capturing what the user sees, hears or even feels through biorhythmic responses."

Just next year, worldwide shipments of 3D printers are expected to grow by three quarters annually, and in 2015 that figure will double again, Gartner said, predicting the consumer market will act as a real driver for the tech.

The analyst also pointed to the Internet of Things as a key market set for further growth, but said that the effect of digitalisation could cause social unrest as the need for labour declines.

"By 2020 the labour-reduction effect of digitisation will cause social unrest and a quest for new economic models in several mature economies. A larger-scale version of an 'Occupy Wall Street'-type movement will begin by the end of 2014, indicating that social unrest will start to foster political debate," it said.