2014 to be year of modest growth in global IT market

Significant growth not set until next year but Forrester analysts still hopeful for the year ahead

The global tech market will not see strong growth similar to that of the 1990s and 2000 era until at least next year, according to Forrester, which despite its forecast remained optimistic about the coming 12 months.

In a blog post about its new A Better But Still Subpar Global Tech Market in 2014 and 2015 report, Forrester said that in US dollars, business and government purchases of IT will grow 6.2 per cent annually, and by 5.5 per cent in constant currency over the same period. The research takes into account sales of computer equipment, software, IT consulting, services and outsourcing, but does not consider telecoms in its analysis.

The 6.2 per cent US dollar-based growth rate dwarfs the 1.6 per cent growth 2013 posted, Forrester said, but added that in constant currency the figures will be more similar. Taking exchange rates into account, the market grew 4.3 per cent annually in 2013.

Despite the projected growth figure for the coming 12 months, Forrester's report concluded that double-digit growth similar to that in the 1990s and 2000 will not return until at least next year.

"The global tech market won't see strong growth until 2015, and even then the 8.1 per cent US dollar and 6.9 per cent local currency growth rates will be well below the double-digit growth rates of the late 1990s and 2000 era," said Andrew Bartels, Forrester's principal analyst for CIOs.

He added that the US will lead other regions in IT purchasing, with the Western Europe region only just recovering from its debt crisis and even traditionally fast-growing countries Brazil, China, India and Russia suffering sluggish and uneven growth.

The PC market could even be set for a boost this year, added Bartels. "Computer equipment will lag, with only tablets posting strong growth, though laptops and other PCs will see a modest recovery," he said.

"Communications equipment will do somewhat better, driven by business and government spending on smartphones and wireless equipment, which will offset weakness in traditional routers, switches, and other wireline equipment."