Component supplies set to affect notebook shipments - analyst

TrendForce predicts that shipments will drop in 2017 as component supply drops and prices rise

Global netbook shipments are set to decline by 4.5 per cent next year, driven by rising prices and component shortages, according to TrendForce.

The analyst claims that notebook shipments will drop to around 150.7 million as the market for LCD panel screens experiences a "structural supply shortage".

This shortage will result in vendors being forced to manufacture more full high-definition (FHD) laptops instead of LCDs, but the increased price of FHDs may deter buyers, according to Trendforce.

"Selling more FHD models to offset the lack of supply for HD models may not be a viable strategy," said Anita Wang, notebook analyst.

"Higher hardware specifications will lead to a significant rise in that notebook's OS licence fee, so branded vendors will have difficulty in promoting notebooks with FHD displays."

TrendForce expects 28 per cent of all notebooks shipped this year to have FHD-or-better displays, which is says is a "significant" increase on 2015.

It warned, however, that higher-specification laptops tend to lead to an increase in operating system licence fees, which could further deter buyers.

"Notebooks that are equipped with 8GB of RAM and an FHD display belong to the high-end premium category, according to Microsoft's current formula for Windows licence fees," Wang added.

"Unless prices of FHD panels drop sharply or Microsoft changes its licence fee formula, the share of FHD models in next year's global notebook shipments will reach just 34 to 35 per cent, translating to a small increase of just six or seven percentage points compared with the prior year."