Distribution data points to Black Friday flop

Fall in shipments through distribution in first six weeks of Q4 are an indicator that Black Friday could be a damp squib, according to analyst Context

Despite a flurry of promotional activity from retailers, consumer tech is not expected to see a Black Friday surge this year, according to market watcher Context.

The analyst used the notebook category as an indicator of what may happen in the broader consumer tech market in two days' time.

Its predictions are based on analysis of distribution volumes into retailers and etailers over a six-week period at the start of Q4.

"Most vendors prepare for this event in advance by ensuring most of their shipments to retailers and distributors are largely complete by the end of week 39," stated Adam Simon, global MD at Context.

"So distribution volumes into retail/etail after this time are a good indicator of consumer demand.

"Overall we're not seeing any major year-on-year volume sales increases in notebooks. And if there is growth in sell-out compared to 2017, it could mean a weaker December."

In the UK market, volumes through distribution are down 11 per cent on 2017, and down 35 per cent compared to 2016's figure.

This decline is representative of growing consumer cynicism around the shopping event, according to Context.

This cynicism is seen across other European markets, with Germany also predicted to see an 11 per cent decline on volumes through distribution, and France expected to see distribution volumes down 23 per cent on the same period last year.