IT sales through distribution set for rebound in 2024
European IT revenue sales are expected to return to growth next year following a difficult 2023
IT revenue sales through European distribution will see growth of 2.6 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in 2024 after a difficult 2023, according to CONTEXT, a global IT market intelligence company.
CONTEXT's team of analysts arrived at the figure after industry outreach and analysis of key market trends and sales data over recent quarters.
The firm forecasts revenue sales for 2024 in a range between -0.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent (with 2.6 per cent as the central estimate), up from a 2023 forecast of -6 per cent.
Several expected drivers underpin the projection of better performance in 2024, including new AI-based products and use cases, a delayed product refresh cycle, and positive comparisons with 2023.
New government stimulus may also boost the industry following the resolution of elections in Spain and a new liberal administration taking power in Poland.
However, much will depend on the macroeconomic environment, specifically whether economic conditions stimulate consumer demand and business investment.
A potentially good sign is the recent stabilising of EU business confidence for the first time in 2023, after seven consecutive monthly declines.
2024 revenue sales growth range predictions by product segment
PCs: Mobile Computing - 4.9 per cent to 11.7 per cent; Desktop Computing - 0.8 per cent to 8 per cent
Enterprise Servers: -0.4 per cent to 7.6 per cent
Enterprise Storage: -0.2 per cent to 7.7 per cent
Displays: Desktop Monitors - -6.2 per cent to 2.6 per cent; Large Format Displays - 1.7 per cent to 11.7 per cent
Networking: -10.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent
Imaging: Printer Hardware - -5.8 per cent to 3.9 per cent; Consumables - -3.3 per cent to 0.6 per cent
"2023 has been a year of correction following the COVID-fueled growth of recent years," said CONTEXT global MD Adam Simon.
"It has been a tough year for distribution and the entire IT industry as businesses lost confidence to invest. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. We predict Q2 2024 as the turnaround quarter, with volume and value growth rates converging and continuing positive trends in the second half of 2024, helped by favorable year-over-year comparisons."