Nokia foresees a wireless future

Telecoms CEO predicts the future of mobile technology.

The global information society will be driven by wireless technology as mobile telephony continues its rapid growth into the next millennium, according to Nokia CEO Jorma Ollila.

Ollila gave the keynote speech at the European IT Conference, predicting that the third generation of mobile communications, including multimedia and internet, will arrive by 2002.

'We will see the third generation by 2001 or 2002, and I want to underline that these forecasts are very realistic, both in terms of handsets and networks. The electronic commerce of the future will not just be based on PCs, but by 2002 it will also be possible by mobiles ,' Ollila said.

Recent independent forecasts from telecoms consultants have predicted 2003 to 2005 as more likely target dates for such third generation mobile technologies to gain mass markets.

Countries such as Finland, Sweden and Japan will have the same number of mobile customers as fixed line subscribers by 2002 to 2003, he estimated.

'By the year 2000, penetration will be over 50 per cent in some countries.

The rollout of mobile telephony will be quicker than that of PCs,' he claimed.

'There are 195 million mobile subscribers worldwide today. At present growth rates, that means there will be 470 million by the end of 2000.'

Referring to the conference theme of converging technologies, Ollila said mobile growth will in turn stimulate demand for the internet. People who are demanding and using improved mobile telecoms services are the same people who are driving internet development, he said.

Developments in GSM, the second generation standard, will improve the maximum data exchange capability from 9.6Kbps to 384Kbps by 2000, but third generation terminals will be capable of 2Mbps, which will allow the transmission of 125 pages of information per second, Ollila said.