Key talking points as Canalys and Gartner assess 'watershed year' for the PC market

Key talking points as Canalys and Gartner assess 'watershed year' for the PC market

Data shows PC sales continued to grow in 2021 but analytsts were split on performance in Q4

Canalys and Gartner data shows PC shipments in 2021 jumped to around 340 million, but both offered different assessments on the success of Q4 2021 for PC sales.

Gartner research shows 339.8 million units were shipped in 2021, a 9.9 per cent increase from its 2020 figure, while Canalys figures showed a larger jump of 15 per cent from its own prior year figure to reach 341 million units.

We break down the full-year and fourth quarter figures from both analyst houses.

Successful 2021

Overall, both Gartner and Canalys said 2021 was a mammoth year for PC sales. Gartner claims 2021 saw the highest shipment volume since 2013, while Canalys believes it is the largest shipment total since 2012.

For the full year, Canalys claims revenue passed $250bn in 2021 compared with $220bn in 2020, which it said "highlights the seismic transformation in the industry".

PC sales surged during the pandemic as companies shifted to home working, and Canalys said notebooks and mobile workstations "continued to lead the charge" with shipments of these devices growing 16 per cent in 2021 to reach 275 million units.

The researcher added that desktop and desktop workstation shipments increased seven per cent in 2021 to reach 66 million units.

"2021 was a watershed year in the history of the PC market, with the PC's place at the centre of work, learning and leisure truly cemented," said Ishan Dutt, senior analyst at Canalys.

"For the market to post double-digit growth over an impressive 2020, despite the constant cloud of supply constraints, speaks volumes about how strong PC demand has been over the last 12 months."

When it came to which vendors were leading the way, both Canalys and Gartner ranked Lenovo, HP and Dell as having the biggest market share during 2021.

Gartner figures show Lenovo sold just over 84 million PCs compared with just over 82 million in the data provided by Canalys. Both said HP sold just over 74 million, and around 59 million for Dell.

"The pandemic significantly changed business and consumer PC user behaviour, as people had to adopt to new ways of working and living," said Mikako Kitagawa, research director at Gartner.

"Post-pandemic, some of the newly established ways of using PCs will remain regular practice, such as remote or hybrid workstyles, taking online courses and communicating with friends and family online."

Fourth quarter differences

However, there were notable differences in the data provided by Canalys and Gartner for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Gartner said worldwide PC shipments totalled 88.4 million units in the fourth quarter of 2021, a five per cent decrease from the fourth quarter of 2020, which it added was the first year-over-year decline following six consecutive quarters of growth.

"A sharp decline in the US PC market, caused by ongoing supply chain issues and the collapse in demand for Chromebooks, drove this quarter's slowdown," Kitagawa added.

"This likely signifies the end of the massive and unexpected growth in PC demand triggered by the pandemic."

Canalys, however, said PC shipments instead grew in the fourth quarter compared with the same period in 2020 - with desktops, notebooks and workstations up one per cent to 92 million units.

Both ranked Lenovo, HP and Dell as the top three performers in the quarter. Lenovo shipped 21.7 million units, HP shipped 18.7 million units and Dell shipped 17.2 million units, they said.

But the latter was the only one of the three to see gains compared with Q4 2020, rising 8.9 per cent according to Canalys and 7.9 per cent according to Gartner.

The decline laid out in Gartner's figures was driven by a drop off in the US market, with shipments declining 24.2 per cent year-over-year. The EMEA PC market, meanwhile, grew 7.4 per cent year-over-year to reach 26 million units, the highest volume in five years.

This growth was led by "business PC demand associated with increasing economic and social recovery, as many businesses, schools and universities began to return to in-person operations", Gartner added.

What to expect in 2022

Looking forward, Gartner said it expects PC demand to slow for at least the next two years, but annual shipment volumes are not expected to decline to pre-pandemic levels in that period.

But Canalys expects PC shipments in 2022 to be "even stronger" as digital transformation continues to accelerate.

"While 2021 was the year of digital transformation, 2022 will be the year of digital acceleration," said Canalys principal analyst Rushabh Doshi.

"Demand for technology has boomed in the past two years, the effects of which continue to disrupt the supply chain, affecting not just availability of PCs, but also smartphones, automobiles and servers.

"As PC vendors navigate an ever more complicated situation, consumer spending patterns are shifting. We will see revenue growth in the industry from spending on premium PCs, monitors, accessories and other technology products that enable us to work from anywhere, collaborate around the world and remain ultra-productive.

"The importance of faster, better, more resilient and more secure PCs has never been greater, and the industry is willing to innovate and push the boundaries to keep this momentum going."