Approach with caution

IT companies have good reason to feel optimistic, but all is not sweetness and light

Cautiously optimistic. It's hardly the most inspiring phrase in the English language. And yet just one look at the business climate last week explains why it is actually the most applicable phrase for the atmosphere we are operating in.

Most IT companies in their past financial year or quarter produced results that were at least up, if not good, compared with last year.

Chatter among analysts and various industry and business watchers suggests that things are looking up. Marketing spend, which is always the first expense to be cut and the last to be reinstated, is again creeping back into various sectors.

Rodrigo Rato, head of the International Monetary Fund, said last week that the global economy is in the best shape it has been for the past five years.

And Gordon Brown, at the Labour Party conference last week, was incredibly upbeat about the UK economy, claiming that the UK has the lowest inflation for 30 years, the lowest interest rates for 40 years and that we are enjoying the longest period of sustained economic growth for 200 years.

This is all very positive I'm sure, but it is worth remembering that both the UK and the US are nearing election time, so we should expect to be bombarded with upbeat messages about how well our economies are doing.

In reality, without the election glow surrounding the facts, all is not sweetness and light. The basis of optimism, according to Oscar Wilde, is sheer terror.

Oil prices have continued to rise for the past few months to a point where they have now doubled, and have finally hit a record 21-year high. If the prices continue to rise this cannot fail to have a huge impact on the global economy.

Many industries are finding the going tough. P&O last week axed 1,000 jobs, and our sector is still being hit.

Motorola, for instance, has cut about 1,000 jobs. Software vendors Manugistics and Commerce One also announced lay-offs. Even the cash cow that is Manchester United FC has announced that its profits are down by almost 30 per cent.

With stability still fragile and so much hanging in the balance, perhaps, for now, it is better to simply err on the side of caution.