Microsoft to eat into Apple's share of smartphone market

Windows Phone market share to almost double by 2018

Windows Phone growth is set to outpace the market over the coming four years, according to IDC, which predicts Microsoft's smartphone surge will take a bite out of Apple's market share.

According to recent data from its Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, the analyst said 43.3 million Windows Phones will ship this year – a figure that will reach 65.9 million next year and 115.3 million by 2018.

IDC said Microsoft will "slowly build" its global footprint in the smartphone space – something which increased OEM support will only boost.

"It is somewhat unclear what Microsoft has in store for its recent acquisition of Nokia, but an additional positive is the number of new OEM partners recently announced," the analyst said. "At Microsoft's Build conference this year, the company announced a number of key features that had been visibly absent from the platform in the past.

"If more OEMs get behind the platform, and device portfolios continue to scale the cost spectrum, Windows Phone can continue to gain momentum."

By 2018 Windows Phone's global market share will stand at 6.4 per cent after enjoying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in shipments between 2013 and 2018 of 28.1 per cent, IDC projects.

Rival operating system iOS – Apple's offering – will have a 10 per cent CAGR over the same period but its market share will decline from 14.8 per cent to 13.7 per cent thanks to share gains from Windows Phone and the "others" category, whose share will jump 0.7 points to 2.1 per cent by 2018.

IDC said Apple's growth, which will be in line with the overall market, will be held back somewhat by its premium prices.

"Emerging markets are expected to drive overall market growth, and appetite for smartphones in these markets is at the sub-$200 level, significantly below Apple's selling prices."

By 2018 the smartphone market will continue to be led by Android but its market share will fall from 80.2 per cent to 77.6 per cent, the analyst forecasts.