Windows 10 could supercharge tech market - analyst

Forrester claims its latest tech market forecast could too pessimistic if the new OS ignites the PC market

Forrester claims the global tech market will grow less than five per cent annually this year, but said if Windows 10 can revive the PC market, stronger growth could be on the cards.

The analyst said that in 2016, the global tech market will grow 4.5 per cent, and in 2017, the figure will creep up to 4.7 per cent, both in constant currencies.

The analyst described the projected growth as "modest" but put its umbrella up and said its forecast could be too high or too low.

"Our forecast could be too conservative," the analyst said. "Our 2016 and 2017 forecasts are based on assumptions that the US economy will grow at a steady rate, with the European and Japanese economies improving slightly and the Chinese economy growing at a six per cent rate. "

Earlier this week, Microsoft said that Windows 10 was now active on 200 million devices, making it the most popular version of the OS yet. Forrester said if the new product ends up boosting the volatile PC market – and other economic factors come into play – it could be good news for the overall market.

"We think the more likely alternative to our tech market forecast would be better-than-expected growth should Europe's and China's economies post stronger growth and if the launch of Microsoft [Windows] 10 turns out to be more successful in restoring growth to the PC market than its recent predecessors have been," it said.

Forrester said the US will be a strong-performing country – with the market there expected to grow by 5.1 per cent and 5.9 per cent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But it will be a mixed picture elsewhere, it added.

"India, Mexico, Sweden, China, Poland, and Israel will have the fastest tech market growth of six per cent or more in 2016, while Canada, Australia, South Korea, and most other European countries will grow more slowly," it said. "Japan, Brazil, and South Africa will barely grow, while Russia's tech spending will shrink."

The analyst said that certain economic conditions might mean its current forecast is too optimistic.

"Certainly, there are risks that a renewed recession in Europe and/or Japan or miscalculation by the US Federal Reserve in its monetary tightening could cause actual tech market growth to be lower than our forecasts," it said.